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Old March 27th, 2015 #141
andy
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Originally Posted by Bev View Post
You never updated us on how this horse did and whether you won or not.
It didn't even get competitive like its namesake not a serious option
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Old March 27th, 2015 #142
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Originally Posted by andy View Post
It didn't even get competitive like its namesake not a serious option
That's a shame. I don't like horse racing but for some reason I was really hoping that one would win!
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Old March 27th, 2015 #143
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Originally Posted by Bev View Post
That's a shame. I don't like horse racing but for some reason I was really hoping that one would win!
It is exactly one year since his/its last win (gelding) it is 3 from 24 which is a very poor record for a kingmambo gelding normally it is expected to do 25% ie 6 wins from 24,which is why it was mildly considered last time.
As I posted a bad trainer for this sort of horse - spring is after all when geldings are supposed to come into their own while the whole horses are distracted as it were.
While at wolves tonight 20.15 Sonnythenavigator another kingmambo derived horse looks a good one first time out
A good bet at Meydan tomorrow is Sir Maximillian in the sprint very tough horse with a very tough jockey it is a grade one but if breeding - draw and jockey mean anything its going in at 14-1 it should be 66-1 for such a step up in grade but too much money backing it I 'spect
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Old March 29th, 2015 #144
EDLIE Stampton
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Third and sixth.

 
Old April 2nd, 2015 #145
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About 15 years ago I lost 12 grand in one afternoon in the bookies, Ladbrookes in Curzon street, after that I realised it was a mugs game.

I invented a system where if my horse lost, next race I doubled my bet, on a horse of the same price and added more on for profit, it worked well for a while, but one afternoon I lost 14 races in a row. The same system is used in Roulette its called the Martingale.

I was rational enough to see the flaw in my plan. My Grandfather a horse trainer and gentleman farmer lost his estate, 2,000 acres in his day.

Heres why you cant win.


If a horse has won 1 race in 8, the correct odds to win should be 8/1.

But the bookies wont give that price, they might give 2/1.

Thats called their margin or profit.

Hence why over time you cant win gambling at horses (or the casino). It the horses were correctly priced your chance against the bookie would be 50/50.


By pricing a horse whos real price is 8/1 at 2/1, they have advantage over you of 400%. Thats totally unsustainable in terms of winning.

Last edited by Crusader777; April 2nd, 2015 at 06:43 PM.
 
Old April 2nd, 2015 #146
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Originally Posted by Crusader777 View Post
I invented a system where if my horse lost, next race I doubled my bet, on a horse of the same price...The same system is used in Roulette its called the Martingale
You didn't invent anything. That guaranteed losing "system" is older than the ziggurats of Babylon.
Quote:
If a horse has won 1 race in 8, the correct odds to win should be 8/1.

But the bookies wont give that price, they might give 2/1.

Thats called their margin or profit.
The bookmakers call "their margin of profit" the "over round" which is a positive reflection of the field book formed for a specific race.

Last edited by Henry.; April 2nd, 2015 at 07:03 PM.
 
Old April 2nd, 2015 #147
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I invented (to myself) it because, I had never heard of it before that.

Its not a guaranteed loss, hence why at Roulette they have a fixed limit on Red/Black/Odd/Evens and minimum bet. The margin means you cant play that system. Horse racing is different as you dont get the correct odds or anything like them.

(Other wise a high roller could walk in with millions and wipe them out at Roulette with the Martingale system).
 
Old April 2nd, 2015 #148
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Originally Posted by Crusader777 View Post
I invented (to myself) it because, I had never heard of it before that
Hmm...trust me, you didn't invent something that has been around and failing for thousands of years.

The day you placed your first "Martindale" thousands of others were doing it. They try it out every day and it fails every day
Quote:
t's not a guaranteed loss,
You would need to win in one sequence and get out with big winnings to call it a success...AND STAY OUT.

Your recovery method compounds the rate of loss even faster than Wonga's infamous rate of interest on payday loans...MUCH FASTER!

£1 Mugs doubling their stakes to recover previous losses on horse races is not uncommon. But in the last bet of a 7 race card (assuming all previous bets were hopefully placed at odds-against but no less than evens ) they'd be risking £64 just to recover their £1 initial stake. If the bet fails his loss on the ludicrous exercise is £127.

Bookmakers love stuff like this...It's what puts food on their tables and fine clothes on their backs.

Last edited by Henry.; April 2nd, 2015 at 08:07 PM.
 
Old April 2nd, 2015 #149
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Quote:
£1 Mugs doubling their stakes to recover previous losses on horse races is not uncommon. But in the last bet of a 7 race card (assuming all previous bets were hopefully placed at odds-against but no less than evens ) they'd be risking £64 just to recover their £1 initial stake. If the bet fails his loss on the ludicrous exercise is £127.

Bookmakers love stuff like this...It's what puts food on their tables and fine clothes on their backs.
The gambling industry, from top to bottom, is full of little things like this which are designed to make 'the odds' even more slender than they otherwise would be.

Gambling is for suckers, that's for sure. That's one of the few opinions I've retained from my hyper-religious upbringing; but then again, it's one of the few opinions from my hyper-religious upbringing that's been vindicated by my own observations over the years.

In my home town (Kalgoorlie), I used to see people, miners and others making excellent wages, who were continually living in the shit because the first thing they'd do after finishing work down whichever Pit they worked in, is flock to the TAB (I guess in the UK, it'd be Ladbrokes or whatever you've got over there) to bet hundreds of dollars on which horse, or which dog (they'd bet on fucking carrier pigeon races, if such things existed!) would come first or second in the race of the moment.

I think it's the thrill of (very occasionally) winning that erases out the painful memory of (almost always) losing.

Sure, most of these people were drunk, but the common factor is that they were all stupid - too stupid to realise that even with the (extremely rare) big win, they were still at a massive net loss at the end of each year.

Same thing in the city I've lived in for my entire adult life.

Last edited by M.N. Dalvez; April 2nd, 2015 at 08:58 PM.
 
Old April 2nd, 2015 #150
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Why do you think gangsters have historically been so involved in gambling? Because, running a gambling business, be it casinos, playing 'the numbers', or betting on 'races' and sporting events, is a sure winner - if you're the one running the betting, that is.

And that assumes the games, or the races, or the odds, are not fixed! And they so have been, and so often are.

Why do you think the act of running a gambling enterprise has been referred to as 'fleecing suckers?'

Because gamblers are stupid sheep - no matter how much they lose, they'll always come back to give MORE of what is theirs.

And because gamblers are a renewable resource - they lose what is theirs, but when they make more, they will ALWAYS come back to give again, and again, and again ... And new suckers ... I mean, 'gamblers', are being born every minute, ready to give and give and give again.
 
Old April 2nd, 2015 #151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.N. Dalvez View Post
Gambling is for suckers, that's for sure.
Check this quote from above...
Quote:
If a horse has won 1 race in 8, the correct odds to win should be 8/1.

But the bookies wont give that price, they might give 2/1.

Thats called their margin or profit.
Anyone holding such dangerous nonsense as fact should be prevented from gambling for the sake of their dependents at least.

I once worked with a bloke who, every day, would look to bet on a 100/1 shot believing that the odds of winning (100/1) applied to his ongoing betting and not the horses he was backing in races that had passed into the record books.

He believed, and could not be persuaded otherwise, that each time he backed a horse (any horse) at 100/1 and it lost, then his chances of having a big winner increased.

His faulty logic convinced him, that after 99 losing bets, his 100th would be a bet at evens.
 
Old April 2nd, 2015 #152
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The only way to win at betting is to find 'value.' For example, let's say Andy can find value in certain horse races. After much studying of the form and a few jars of Guinness, he finds a horse that has a 6-4 chance according to his 'expert' judgement. In the bookies, the horse is rated at 5-2 odds. Now if Andy's expert analysis is correct, he has found a 'value bet', which over the long term would yield a positive expected return of 140% gross. That is how professional gamblers win at betting. They find 'value bets', and then only bet at level stakes they can afford, never increasing their stakes or chasing losses by backing horses that offer poor value.
The problem with horse racing is that one needs to be an expert in studying form to find any value because of the over round. I don't understand horse racing myself and so don't bother with it. I play poker instead which is a game of skill.
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Old April 2nd, 2015 #153
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Originally Posted by Gerry Fable View Post
The only way to win at betting on horse races is to...
The single win bet is the one the bookies hate. That's why unlike with 'Yanks', 'Canadians' 'Patents ' etc., the bookies offer no bonuses for single wins. It's true that in the old days the terms of 1/3 the odds in fields of eight (IIRC) made E/W backing a licence to print money for the smart backer, but that avenue was closed off long ago.

Single win bets are the least profitable part of a bookies business by some considerable distance.
 
Old April 3rd, 2015 #154
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It's been a while since I asked this, and its not far away now, so just in case there has been any new info can somebody please finish this sentence for me.......In the Grand national, the name of the horse I should stick my fiver on is.....? Thanks in advance for helping out a once a year gambler
 
Old April 3rd, 2015 #155
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It's been a while since I asked this, and its not far away now, so just in case there has been any new info can somebody please finish this sentence for me.......In the Grand national, the name of the horse I should stick my fiver on is.....? Thanks in advance for helping out a once a year gambler
It looks like McCoy is sticking with Shutthefrontdoor. In my book this is good news for Cause of Causes. McCoy is a great champion and can force the best out of any horse whereas the sort of horse that wins the national does not need forcing it is why McCoy has only won it once. Cause of Causes with Jamie Codd (an amateur rider) is as high as 33's get on each way. I haven't lumped on to the hilt so far as I did think they might run it in the foxhunters not to run it in the amateur riders foxhunters tells me that JP McManus the owner reckons this horse can win the National he has on good Friday confirmed that cause of causes runs in the national that's good enough for me time to prise open the piggy bank.
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Old April 3rd, 2015 #156
EDLIE Stampton
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The best result I ever had in the National was 35 quid.
The reason being the race was canceled about 15 years ago so I got my money back.
Fucking disappointed the bookie when I just collected my money without placing another bet.

If you are splashing out a few quid.Place your bets on line after having a fish about for the best odds.You could find a nag at 16 or 33 so spend a few minutes checking.
http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner

As for this year bung a few quid on Rocky Creek with Twiston-Davies for the win nines and tens at the moment.Down from 20.
Each way has to be Ballycasey with Ruby Walsh.25S and 40-1 down from 100.

I will be doing my tradition of the last 15 years.Dont bet fuck all on anything.

The last good bet I had was Ireland v Italy in the world cup.Had a tenner on at about 15-1.Get in on a 2 horse race like that my son.
30 odd years ago I got N Ireland at 7s.
Lucky aint I.

Bet a tenner and get 30 quid in free bets.
Looks to good to be true but its their way of getting you long term and making you happy when you win your tenner back so you can give it to them again.
http://www.grand-national2015.co.uk/runners-odds/

Last edited by EDLIE Stampton; April 3rd, 2015 at 08:01 AM. Reason: http://www.grand-national2015.co.uk/runners-odds/
 
Old April 3rd, 2015 #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry. View Post
The single win bet is the one the bookies hate. That's why unlike with 'Yanks', 'Canadians' 'Patents ' etc., the bookies offer no bonuses for single wins. It's true that in the old days the terms of 1/3 the odds in fields of eight (IIRC) made E/W backing a licence to print money for the smart backer, but that avenue was closed off long ago.

Single win bets are the least profitable part of a bookies business by some considerable distance.

Not if its the incorrect odds to their advatage, its what keeps them in business.
 
Old April 3rd, 2015 #158
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Happy Ostara!
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Old April 3rd, 2015 #159
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Originally Posted by Gerry Fable View Post
The only way to win at betting is to find 'value.' For example, let's say Andy can find value in certain horse races. After much studying of the form and a few jars of Guinness, he finds a horse that has a 6-4 chance according to his 'expert' judgement. In the bookies, the horse is rated at 5-2 odds. Now if Andy's expert analysis is correct, he has found a 'value bet', which over the long term would yield a positive expected return of 140% gross. That is how professional gamblers win at betting. They find 'value bets', and then only bet at level stakes they can afford, never increasing their stakes or chasing losses by backing horses that offer poor value.
The problem with horse racing is that one needs to be an expert in studying form to find any value because of the over round. I don't understand horse racing myself and so don't bother with it. I play poker instead which is a game of skill.


Even Mccririck went bankrupt betting on horses, too many variables on top of the incorrect odds, I accept occasionally you get value, but you dont know if the horse is feeling unwell, has travelled badly, the jockey is throwing it, and many other factors. You need to know jockeys and trainers to make money.

Its still a good past time, as I get older Im spending more time hanging out with horsey, shooting types, they are old fashioned white people, a good crowd. Off to a point to point Easter Monday.

A day at the national hunt (proper racing) is a nice day out, sad that Ascot, the Grand national etc has been brought down with attention seeking sluts in silly hats and morons. Cartmel is still a great meet as is Glorious goodwood.

As for Poker, I presume you mean Hold em, even played with skill and probability there are huge swings, many Pros are given free entry and paid to promote, its this what keeps them in the game.

Gus Hanson was world number 1 a few yrs back, he won $20 million and lost $21, sums it up.


Prefer bridge and Chemin de fer in my old age with my posh country friends, Poker is too much of a roller coaster. Tally ho.

Last edited by Crusader777; April 3rd, 2015 at 09:25 AM.
 
Old April 3rd, 2015 #160
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I usually post something here from satirical site Newsthump on Frdays but there's no need today.

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Screaming in pain, Filipino devotees had themselves nailed to wooden crosses to mimic the suffering of Jesus Christ on Good Friday in Asia's largest Roman Catholic nation.

Church leaders have spoken against the annual practice mixing Catholic devotion with folk belief, but it continues to draw big crowds, particularly in northern Pampanga province.

Painter Ruben Enaje, 54, was among half a dozen men whose hands and feet were rubbed with alcohol before locals dressed as Roman soldiers hammered sterilized nails into his flesh

He has repeated the same act for the last 29 years as part of giving thanks after surviving a fall from a building. This year, he added a gadget— a small microphone near his mouth, although a technical glitch made it difficult to hear him utter Christ's last words.

The reenactment of Christ's crucifixion at a dusty mound in San Pedro Cutud village drew at least 4,000 spectators and tourists, dozens of them foreigners. Unlike in the past, organizers this year banned foreigners from being nailed to crosses to prevent the event from "becoming a circus," said Councilor Harvey Quiwa.

ht tp://ww w.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3024281/Filipino-devotees-nailed-crosses-Good-Friday-rites.html
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