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Old January 16th, 2021 #1
Crowe
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Default Russia: adapting to sanctions leaves economy in robust health

https://www.ft.com/content/a9b982e6-...omments-anchor

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Russia’s response to the sanctions focused on three key areas. First, it tightened its belt, cutting public spending and forcing its banks and major corporates to clean up their balance sheets. That was partly due to the slump in foreign credit caused by sanctions and investor sentiment, and partly due to a sense that the economy needed a safety net.

Second, it spent trillions of roubles on programmes to create domestic substitutes for imported goods, while food imports from the EU were banned in order to stimulate local production. - Counter sanctions?

And third, it overhauled how Russia spends the vast proceeds from selling oil and gas. Income from energy exports above a certain level was diverted into a national wealth fund, which ended a pattern of boom-and-bust caused by government spending linked to the oil price. It also, almost overnight, severed the bond that had seen the rouble move in tandem with energy markets.

The results have been impressive. All three levels of Russia’s government ran a budget surplus in 2018 and 2019, and its total public debt is about 15 per cent of GDP. The EU average is 80 per cent.

Since the end of 2015, Russia’s international currency reserves have risen almost 50 per cent to $542bn at the end of November, the highest level since 2011 and close to a record peak achieved in 2008. The farming sector is booming — wheat production in 2017 was the highest ever on record — and Russia earned a record $24bn in agriculture exports last year, more than twice what it made from arms exports.

And, thanks to a relatively steady increase in oil prices since 2014 and the successful implementation of the wealth fund, Russia had $124bn saved up at the start of December — about 7 per cent of GDP.

James Roaf, head of the IMF mission to Russia, credited the economic situation to Moscow’s “adherence to a sound macroeconomic framework, which supports economic activity by reducing uncertainty, keeping inflation under control and providing confidence in the exchange rate.”
Western countries engage in liberal spending policies, spending more than they take in, while Putin and Russia adapt their economy to mitigate the impact of US and EU sanctions to still do surprisingly well while being fiscally responsible.

I'm sure plenty of heads are exploding in Washington and Brussels knowing that sanctions only made Russia restructure its economy to become more self reliant.

Sanctions against Russia? They've been out maneuvered by Putin yet again.
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Old January 16th, 2021 #2
Crowe
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American Golems like Donald Trump are salty that Russia is still selling oil to the EU in spite of these "Sanctions".

Quote:
Germany is totally controlled by Russia,” he said. “They will be getting between 60 and 70 percent of their energy from Russia and a new pipeline.”
Germany is totally controlled by Russia? That's among the most retarded shit I've ever heard him say.

Quote:
Where else does Russia supply gas in Europe?

It’s not just the Germans who are in the words of Trump “paying the Russians billions.” Along with gas from Norway, Algeria and Qatar, Europe gets more than a third of its gas from Russia. Tens of thousands of American homes burned Russian natural gas this winter. The gas itself was produced and liquefied by a joint venture between the French energy company Total and Novatek, a company which has been subjected to U.S. financial sanctions.
If "sanctions" like these are the penalty for taking the Crimea, then maybe Russia should take more territory from Ukraine?
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Old January 16th, 2021 #3
Crowe
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Toothless and ineffective sanctions against Russia is basically all they got in their deck. Doing much more, would require an actual military conflict.

Or the Scales approach:


So even General Scales admits that unless the USA is willing to commit to killing Russians in a military conflict, that they don't really have any effective options here.

I'd argue it's similar with regards to China, except the USA has a little more economic leverage with China. A lot of whining about "Human rights" violations, and some imposing some sanctions and tariffs, but that's really as far as they're going to go with China.

The USA is great at bullying smaller countries, or countries who can't turn US cities into glass, thereby taking direct military options completely off the table.

I think it's funny how powerless they are to do anything about Russia and China.
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Old January 17th, 2021 #4
Hugo Böse
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From the article

Quote:
The farming sector is booming — wheat production in 2017 was the highest ever on record — and Russia earned a record $24bn in agriculture exports last year, more than twice what it made from arms exports.

That´s surprising, always thought Russia´s arms exports are larger.
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Old January 17th, 2021 #5
Ray Allan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugo Böse View Post
From the article




That´s surprising, always thought Russia´s arms exports are larger.
It's ironic the usa's arms exports are bigger than the USSR's or Russia's ever were. We may have to buy food from Russia.
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